| 623 |
closed |
discrete |
By how many million barrels will EIA-reported crude-oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma change between the weeks ending 17 July 2026 and 7 August 2026? |
2026-07-21 |
2026-08-12 |
| 622 |
closed |
date |
When will Oleksandr Syrskyi leave the position of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief? |
2026-07-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 621 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be Count Binface’s lead over Nigel Farage in the opinion polling for the Clacton by-election on August 12, 2026? |
2026-07-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 620 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the combined subscribers of all MrBeast channels on July 19th. |
2026-07-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 619 |
closed |
discrete |
What seasonally adjusted labor-force participation rate will the BLS report for U.S. women ages 25–54 in its August 7th, 2026 release? |
2026-07-17 |
2026-08-08 |
| 618 |
closed |
discrete |
How many WastewaterSCAN municipal treatment sites will report Medium or High levels of gastrointestinal pathogens on August 12, 2026? |
2026-07-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 617 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the total population served by Waymo pass 8,000,000 people? |
2026-07-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 616 |
closed |
discrete |
How many 510(k) medical-device clearances will the FDA's openFDA Device 510(k) dataset list with a decision date between June 1, 2026 and July 31, 2026 (inclusive), as observed on August 11, 2026? |
2026-07-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 614 |
closed |
date |
On what observation date will the EIA first report weekly U.S. crude oil exports at or above 5,500 thousand barrels per day? |
2026-07-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 615 |
closed |
date |
On what observation date will the EIA first report Cushing, Oklahoma ending stocks excluding SPR of crude oil below 18,000 thousand barrels? |
2026-07-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 613 |
closed |
discrete |
How many government-source communications will claim foreign access to 2020 or 2026 U.S. election data or infrastructure? |
2026-07-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 612 |
closed |
date |
When will Earthcam.com display a fully filled Lincoln Reflecting Pool. |
2026-07-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 610 |
closed |
discrete |
How many distinct commercial ships will be hit by U.S. or Iranian assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz by 10 August 2026? |
2026-07-13 |
2026-08-11 |
| 609 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index first rise to or above 40? |
2026-07-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 608 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Donald Trump next publish a Truth Social post about Jerome Powell? |
2026-07-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 607 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Department of War's daily contract announcements first include a contract action referencing the Tomahawk missile, between 7/18/2026 and 8/10/2026? |
2026-07-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 606 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Iranian vessels will CENTCOM report as damaged or destroyed in Operation Epic Fury as of August 11, 2026? |
2026-07-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 605 |
closed |
date |
Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100 |
2026-07-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 604 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will The Guardian next publish a five-star review of a theatre production staged in the United Kingdom? |
2026-07-08 |
2026-08-12 |
| 603 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the signed % deviation between Strike and Index for the liquidated Deribit BTC option with the max absolute deviation (July 15–Aug 11, 2026)? |
2026-07-07 |
2026-07-11 |
| 600 |
closed |
discrete |
By how many CDR-SB points will low-dose diranersen slow clinical decline versus placebo at Week 76 in the Phase 2 CELIA trial? |
2026-07-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 601 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the benchmark UK 30-year gilt yield first close at or outside the range 5.35%–5.72%? |
2026-07-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 602 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026? |
2026-07-06 |
2026-08-11 |
| 599 |
closed |
discrete |
How many new paralytic polio cases (WPV1 plus cVDPV) will be added to the GPEI 2026 year-to-date total between July 6 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-07-05 |
2026-08-11 |
| 598 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Class I drug recall records will openFDA return with a report date between July 6 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-07-05 |
2026-08-11 |
| 595 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Aider polyglot leaderboard first list a sub-$5 run with at least 80.0% correct? |
2026-07-05 |
2026-08-12 |
| 594 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the U.S. oil rig count exceed the gas rig count by more than 350, on or before August 12, 2026? |
2026-07-04 |
2026-08-12 |
| 593 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the maximum total count of "High" or "Extreme" risk signals changes in any weekly BBVA Geopolitics Monitor published before August 12, 2026? |
2026-07-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 591 |
closed |
date |
On what date was the model publicly announced or released by its creator that first caused the highest mean net worth in the All tab on the Vending-Bench 2 leaderboard to exceed $13,500? |
2026-07-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 590 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Andon Market’s public trailing-30-day revenue next exceed its public trailing-30-day token cost? |
2026-07-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 588 |
closed |
discrete |
How many civil denaturalization complaints will the U.S. Department of Justice file in federal district court during July 2026? |
2026-07-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 589 |
closed |
date |
When will the number of 'high' or 'extreme' risks signal changes reported in the BBVA Geopolitics Monitor strictly exceed 50, on or before August 12, 2026? |
2026-07-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 587 |
closed |
numeric |
Cumulative 2026 cholera cases in Nigeria: NCDC figure minus WHO figure, as of August 24, 2026 |
2026-07-02 |
2026-08-11 |
| 586 |
closed |
numeric |
Cumulative 2026 mpox cases in Africa: Africa CDC total minus WHO confirmed, as of August 12, 2026 |
2026-07-02 |
2026-08-11 |
| 584 |
closed |
numeric |
What OpenRouter text market share will Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic hold between them in the week commencing 6th July? |
2026-07-02 |
2026-07-13 |
| 585 |
closed |
numeric |
How many passengers will TSA record for the 7 days from 15th to 21st to July inclusive? |
2026-07-02 |
2026-07-27 |
| 583 |
closed |
date |
When will the Weekly Economic Index shift by more than 0.75 points from its current value? |
2026-07-02 |
2026-08-12 |
| 582 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the EIA first report U.S. propane and propylene ending stocks at or above 101.0 million barrels? |
2026-07-02 |
2026-08-12 |
| 577 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the Hospital and Related Services CPI index level be for the June 2026 reference month? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-07-14 |
| 579 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Donald Trump next publish a Truth Social post about Mexico containing an adversarial keyword? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 580 |
closed |
numeric |
How many transactions will the Robinhood Chain mainnet process on 1 August 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-03 |
| 578 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will SpaceX stock first close below $150 before August 12, 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 551 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Spider-Man: Brand New Day first reach $400 million in cumulative domestic box-office gross? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 575 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the EIA first report Total Lower-48 working gas in underground storage at or above 3,150 Bcf? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 576 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will total U.S. money market fund assets first be reported at or above $7.95 trillion? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 574 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the S&P Global Platts IODEX 62% Fe iron ore benchmark first record a daily assessment at or below US$90/dry tonne, or at or above US$110/dt, on or after 2 July 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 573 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Among {VIC, SA, TAS, NSW, QLD, None}, in which NEM region does AEMO issue the first actual (non-forecast) LOR2-or-higher reserve notice on or after 00:00 AEST 2 July 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-07-12 |
| 572 |
resolved |
date |
When will the FRBSF report that the Daily News Sentiment Index reached a new maximum for 2026, on or before August 12, 12:00 UTC? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 570 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index be for July 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-06 |
| 571 |
closed |
date |
When will Romania’s Parliament next give a vote of confidence to a new Government? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 567 |
closed |
date |
When will the U.S. Senate confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 568 |
closed |
discrete |
How many net new near-Earth asteroids will be added to NASA's CNEOS catalog between June 30 and August 3, 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-03 |
| 569 |
closed |
discrete |
How many judicial nominees will the Senate confirm during July 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 135 |
closed |
discrete |
How many new individuals and entities will be added to OFAC's SDN List between January 1, 2026 and August 1, 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-01 |
| 564 |
closed |
numeric |
How much will the total USD-denominated stablecoin market cap grow during July 2026? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-01 |
| 566 |
closed |
numeric |
What will FRED report as the July 2026 monthly average federal funds effective rate? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 563 |
closed |
date |
When will María Corina Machado next enter Venezuela? |
2026-07-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 550 |
closed |
discrete |
How many active retail hemp registrations will the Texas DSHS Consumable Hemp Program registry display in its most recent update on or before 11 August 2026? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 559 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the maximum hourly value reported for "Battery storage" under "U.S. electricity generation by energy source" on the EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor in July 2026? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 560 |
closed |
discrete |
How many CVEs will be "Awaiting Enrichment" according to the NIST NVD Dashboard as of 10 August 2026? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 558 |
closed |
discrete |
What will the U.S. EIA report as the 2028 annual unfilled uranium market requirement of owners and operators of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors in its next Uranium Marketing Annual Report? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 557 |
closed |
discrete |
Exactly how many unannounced "compliance audits" will Australia's new National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) officially report initiating between July 1 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 554 |
closed |
discrete |
How many successful launches will the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation announce from 1 July to 10 August 2026? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 555 |
closed |
date |
When will the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) next issue an official IPC Alert or Famine Review Committee Report? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 556 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 549 |
resolved |
date |
When will Trump next remove an independent-agency official after Trump v. Slaughter? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 552 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the largest single-day number of Ukrainian drones over Crimea claimed downed by Russia’s Ministry of Defense between July 1, 2026 and August 10, 2026? |
2026-06-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 547 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will be the 7-day moving average of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for the week of June 29 to July 5, 2026? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-07-05 |
| 546 |
annulled |
discrete |
Flu Hospitalization Rate (Jun 29 - Jul 5)? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-07-05 |
| 545 |
closed |
discrete |
How many wild horses (brumbies) will the NPWS report as culled during the June–July 2026 aerial shooting operation? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-08-11 |
| 542 |
closed |
date |
On what date will ESMA, EBA, or an EU/EEA authority first publicly issue an enforcement fine or formal cease-and-desist order under MiCA rules against a crypto-asset service provider or issuer? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 543 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the POTUS first sign, issue, or officially publish an executive action increasing the baseline global tariff rate imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 above 10%? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 541 |
closed |
date |
On what observation date will U.S. seasonally-adjusted Initial Claims first exceed 260,000? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 540 |
resolved |
date |
When will H.R. 6644, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, become law? |
2026-06-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 539 |
closed |
discrete |
How many ransomware victims will be claimed by the group "Qilin" during July 2026? |
2026-06-28 |
2026-08-02 |
| 538 |
closed |
discrete |
How many distinct NIH-funded projects in NIH RePORTER will have a "Project Start Date" from 28 June 2026 through 11 August 2026, inclusive? |
2026-06-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 537 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-07-14 |
| 536 |
resolved |
numeric |
Will engagement levels rise for Bluesky users. |
2026-06-27 |
2026-06-28 |
| 535 |
closed |
discrete |
How many "Foreign Military Sales" (FMS) congressional notifications will be published between July 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 534 |
closed |
discrete |
Will the concept of a laffer curve get more popular appeal in economists by August 12th? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 533 |
closed |
discrete |
How many rockets or missiles will be added to the Open Source Munitions Portal (OSMP) between June 27, 2026, and August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 522 |
closed |
numeric |
What proportion of satellite launches in July 2026 will be SpaceX? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-01 |
| 532 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the US dry whey price be for the week ending 25 July 2026? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 530 |
closed |
discrete |
How many ACLED-recorded explosive/strike events will occur in Crimea between July 1, 2026 and August 1, 2026? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-04 |
| 531 |
resolved |
date |
When will a GPT 5.6 class model be made publicly available? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 529 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the lowest advertised spot price per-hour for an NVIDIA B200 SXM GPU on August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 528 |
closed |
discrete |
How many HIPAA breaches categorized as a "Hacking/IT Incident" will be reported to the HHS during July 2026? |
2026-06-26 |
2026-08-12 |
| 527 |
closed |
date |
Which trading day between 7/1/2026 and 8/7/2026 will record the highest settlement price for ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) futures? |
2026-06-26 |
2026-08-12 |
| 526 |
closed |
numeric |
On July 2026, how much organic traffic will articles on the Iran War get. |
2026-06-26 |
2026-08-12 |
| 523 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which currently elected MP will be the next to join Community Strong Australia by August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-25 |
2026-07-11 |
| 519 |
closed |
discrete |
How many new ClinicalTrials.gov studies mentioning GLP-1 will be first posted between June 1, 2026 and August 7, 2026? |
2026-06-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 520 |
closed |
numeric |
How many million barrels of Iranian crude oil and condensate exports will UANI estimate for July 2026? |
2026-06-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 518 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Who will be the highest ranking member of the Starmer 2026 Cabinet to retain their role in the next Cabinet? |
2026-06-22 |
2026-07-16 |
| 516 |
closed |
discrete |
How many OSHA formal citations classified as "Willful" will appear in the federal enforcement database with an inspection close date between June 1 and July 31, 2026, as of August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 515 |
closed |
discrete |
How many vulnerabilities added to the CISA KEV catalog between June 8 and August 5, 2026, will carry a ransomware flag and have a CVSS v3.1 Base Score published in the NIST NVD by August 7, 2026? |
2026-06-22 |
2026-08-07 |
| 513 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the net sum difference in national debt between two top trackers. |
2026-06-19 |
2026-06-23 |
| 512 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will the count for US Drug Deaths be. |
2026-06-19 |
2026-06-21 |
| 511 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the US China Trade Deficit. |
2026-06-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 510 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the #1 GitHub Trending Python repository first have at least 10,000 stars gained during the week? |
2026-06-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 509 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker next exceed 8? |
2026-06-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 508 |
resolved |
date |
On what reported date will the US Daily Trade Policy Uncertainty Index next fall below 1000? |
2026-06-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 507 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many votes in favour will the DRC 1533 sanctions renewal receive? |
2026-06-18 |
2026-07-01 |
| 506 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the US Treasury General Account weekly average first fall below 750,000 million USD on FRED? |
2026-06-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 505 |
resolved |
date |
On what reported date will the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bullish percentage next reach or exceed 37%? |
2026-06-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 504 |
resolved |
numeric |
What placebo-adjusted reduction in MADRS total score at Week 6 will be reported for MM120 (lysergide) vs. placebo in the Phase 3 Emerge trial in major depressive disorder? |
2026-06-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 503 |
closed |
date |
When will a major central bank first change its monetary policy rate before August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 502 |
closed |
discrete |
How many PubMed records will have a Publication Date between July 1 and August 11, 2026 (inclusive) and match the artificial-intelligence × health-policy search defined below? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 497 |
closed |
discrete |
How many layoffs of 400 or more employees will layoffs.fyi record in July 2026 at Post-IPO or Acquired companies? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-06 |
| 501 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 500 |
closed |
date |
When will weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline prices first surpass $4.25 per gallon? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 499 |
closed |
discrete |
How many NVD CVEs will mention MCP or Model Context Protocol in July 2026? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 498 |
closed |
numeric |
By August 12, what total amount of Japanese foreign exchange intervention will MOF report after the April 28–May 27, 2026 reporting period? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 495 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Warning Letters issued by FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) will be posted to the FDA Warning Letters database with a posted date between June 22, 2026 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 494 |
resolved |
numeric |
How many votes will Reform UK receive in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK Parliament by-election on 18 June 2026? |
2026-06-17 |
2026-06-25 |
| 492 |
closed |
date |
When will the next London transport strike day take place? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 493 |
closed |
discrete |
How many successful orbital launches will SpaceX conduct between 16 June and 11 August 2026, inclusive? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 490 |
closed |
date |
When will the EIA first report weekly U.S. implied crude oil demand of less than 15,250 thousand barrels/day? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 489 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the difference between the scores of the best-performing bot and the best-performing human on the Jump Trading Probability Cup leaderboard on July 20, 2026? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-07-22 |
| 488 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many U.S. state economies shrank in Q1 2026? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-06-25 |
| 487 |
closed |
discrete |
How many of the following pre-Iran War foreign-airline routes to Dubai International Airport will be operating in the week before the resolution deadline? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 486 |
closed |
date |
When will the U.S. publicly release the June 2026 U.S.–Iran memorandum text (not permanent agreement)? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 483 |
closed |
discrete |
How many U.S. utility patents with an official grant (issue) date between June 16, 2026 and July 30, 2026 (inclusive) will be classified under both CPC group G16H50/00 and CPC group G06N3/00? |
2026-06-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 482 |
closed |
date |
When will the Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Momentum Gauge next indicate a likely or very likely decrease in the unemployment rate? |
2026-06-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 480 |
closed |
date |
When will Limitless announce a taker delay on short-term Crypto Markets? |
2026-06-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 479 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which individual will record the largest increase in implied probability in Sportsbet's "To Run as a One Nation Candidate at the Next Federal Election" market between 15 June 2026 and 11 August 2026? |
2026-06-15 |
2026-07-11 |
| 478 |
closed |
date |
On what date on or before 12 August 2026 will the Roy Morgan ALP-vs-One Nation 2PP first show One Nation at or above 50.0% |
2026-06-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 472 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-11 |
| 476 |
closed |
date |
When will the Armenia-Turkey border reopen? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 477 |
closed |
date |
When will the U.S. Senate next pass a budget reconciliation bill? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-07-04 |
| 473 |
resolved |
date |
When will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin next speak on the phone? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-02 |
| 474 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will be the total square mileage of Waymo's public service area on July 1, 2026? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 475 |
resolved |
date |
When will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a decision in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 471 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the ratio of Databricks' valuation to Salesforce's market capitalization on June 30, 2026? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-07-01 |
| 470 |
closed |
date |
On what publication date on or before August 12, 2026, will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal poll first report the L-NP Coalition primary vote at or below 15.0%? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 469 |
closed |
discrete |
How many districts will have the highest densities of cases of dengue fever in Samoa on August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-14 |
2026-08-11 |
| 468 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the highest number of new dengue-like illness cases reported in Tonga on a single day before August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 463 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Environmental Protection Agency documents will be published in the Federal Register from June 15 to August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 467 |
closed |
date |
When will the third London-listed company publicly announce plans to cut at least 100 jobs from 13 June 2026? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 465 |
resolved |
date |
When will Claude Fable 5 be made available again to users in the United States? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 464 |
closed |
date |
When will US Congress enact a suspension of the federal gas tax? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 461 |
closed |
numeric |
How many confirmed measles cases will the CDC report in the United States for 2026 as of the August 12, 2026 update? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 462 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the U.S. 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield first be reported at or above 4.75%, on or before August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 459 |
annulled |
discrete |
How many Coast Guard documents will the Federal Register publish from June 16 through August 10, 2026? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-08-11 |
| 460 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the "ICE Currently Detained" total be in the most recent FY2026 ICE Detention Statistics spreadsheet published on or before August 10, 2026? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-08-11 |
| 457 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will the Bolivian government invoke Law 1740 via a Supreme Decree to declare a State of Exception? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 455 |
resolved |
numeric |
Maximum leading bid price on Kickbacks.ai on the 20th of June? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-06-21 |
| 456 |
closed |
discrete |
How many events in Ethiopia will ACLED report in July 2026? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 454 |
closed |
discrete |
How many total port calls will PortWatch report for Hambantota in July 2026? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 453 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Southwest Land Border Encounters will U.S. Customs and Border Patrol report for June 2026? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 452 |
closed |
discrete |
What amount (in billions of U.S. dollars) will the U.S. Treasury report for Customs and Duties receipts for July 2026? |
2026-06-12 |
2026-07-12 |
| 451 |
closed |
discrete |
How many publicly listed insurance or reinsurance groups globally will disclose net pre-tax insurance losses of at least US$100 million from large claims, or reserve strengthening for Q2 2026? |
2026-06-11 |
2026-08-11 |
| 448 |
closed |
date |
On what date, will the Court of Justice of the EU first publish an order or decision on Slovakia’s legal challenge against the EU Russian gas phase-out regulation? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-08-12 |
| 449 |
closed |
date |
On what date, if any, will the PX index of the Prague Stock Exchange first close at or above 2,650.00 points after this question is published? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-08-12 |
| 450 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Class I drug recall enforcement reports will the FDA publish with a report date between June 10 and August 5, 2026? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-08-08 |
| 447 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the Metacritic Metascore for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey at 17:00 UTC on 24 July 2026? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-07-25 |
| 446 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the official closing price, in USD per share, of SpaceX common stock on its 10th full trading day after its IPO? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-06-24 |
| 412 |
resolved |
discrete |
In how many countries will Starlink be available on July 4th? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-07-04 |
| 425 |
closed |
numeric |
What share of UK government debt issued via DMO auction between 3 June 2026 and 11 August 2026 will fall in the "Medium" maturity bucket (7–15 years)? |
2026-06-10 |
2026-08-12 |
| 445 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be Halliburton Stock (HAL) closing price be on August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 444 |
closed |
date |
When will the USA lift fuel blockade sanctions enforcement from Cuba? |
2026-06-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 443 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the total number of US mass shootings in 2026 reported by the Gun Violence Archive as of August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 442 |
closed |
discrete |
What will the latest Gallup poll net-for show for the Icelandic EU negotiations referendum on August 1st? |
2026-06-09 |
2026-07-01 |
| 441 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulfur in July 2026? |
2026-06-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 440 |
closed |
date |
When will the Manheim EV Index next be released with a value at or above 218.0? |
2026-06-09 |
2026-08-12 |
| 437 |
closed |
discrete |
How many of the top 200 monthly profit leaders on Polymarket will have over $5m in volume on July 29, 2026? |
2026-06-07 |
2026-07-28 |
| 436 |
closed |
discrete |
How many confirmed U.S. New World screwworm animal cases and wild-fly detections will USDA list by August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-07 |
2026-08-11 |
| 432 |
closed |
discrete |
How many outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Wild Birds will be reported in the EFSA HPAI dashboard during July 2026? |
2026-06-06 |
2026-08-03 |
| 435 |
closed |
discrete |
How many U.S. International Trade Commission documents will the Federal Register publish between 6/8/2026 and 8/11/2026? |
2026-06-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 434 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Nuclear Regulatory Commission documents will the Federal Register publish between 6/8/2026 and 8/12/2026? |
2026-06-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 421 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Russian shadow fleet vessels will be intercepted by EU countries between June 4 and August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-08-12 |
| 431 |
closed |
discrete |
How many consumer product recall announcements will the CPSC publish between 6/8/2026 and 8/12/2026? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-08-12 |
| 428 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Airworthiness Directives will the Federal Register publish for Boeing aircraft between June 1 and July 31, 2026? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-08-01 |
| 429 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate first exceed 7.0% on or before August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-08-12 |
| 430 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Starship integrated flight tests will SpaceX successfully complete between June 1 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-08-12 |
| 427 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the closing price of SpaceX (SPCX) common stock on its first day of trading? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-06-13 |
| 426 |
closed |
numeric |
What 2035 minimum GB electricity demand will NESO forecast in eligible material between 5 Jun and 12 Aug 2026? |
2026-06-05 |
2026-08-11 |
| 409 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will the income-side (GOS) alignment adjustment for 2026 Q1 be in Table M of the UK GDP Quarterly National Accounts published on 30 June 2026? |
2026-06-04 |
2026-06-30 |
| 423 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the U.S. Trade Deficit figure displayed on USDebtClock.org be on 31 July 2026? |
2026-06-04 |
2026-07-30 |
| 422 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will be the highest planned enrollment among newly registered interventional studies on ClinicalTrials.gov (June 4–July 4, 2026) whose Brief Summary mentions AI? |
2026-06-04 |
2026-07-12 |
| 420 |
closed |
discrete |
How many arXiv papers submitted between June 4 and August 11, 2026 will contain both an AI term and a biosecurity term in their abstract? |
2026-06-04 |
2026-08-12 |
| 419 |
closed |
date |
Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume? |
2026-06-04 |
2026-08-12 |
| 418 |
closed |
date |
When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 416 |
closed |
discrete |
How many new tankers will UANI identify as transiting or attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the closure, between June 9 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 417 |
closed |
numeric |
How many entries will be added to the U.S. Treasury OFAC Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List between June 9 and August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 413 |
closed |
numeric |
How many migrant deaths and disappearances will IOM's Missing Migrants Project record in the Mediterranean region for the period 9 June to 11 August 2026, as listed on 11 August 2026? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 414 |
closed |
discrete |
How many recall cases and public health alerts will USDA FSIS post between 9 June and 11 August 2026, per the FSIS recalls archive? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-11 |
| 415 |
closed |
discrete |
How many work stoppages will the Cornell ILR Labor Action Tracker record as beginning between 9 June and 11 August 2026, as listed on the tracker on 11 August 2026? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 410 |
closed |
date |
When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 407 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the margin of victory in the Makerfield by-election? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-06-19 |
| 408 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the year-to-date peak electricity price in the UK be on August 12th? |
2026-06-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 406 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the total number of Assigned Provider Independent (PI) IPv4 address block transfers published by the RIPE NCC in July 2026? |
2026-06-02 |
2026-08-01 |
| 403 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the net change in Somalia's internally displaced persons (IDPs) count between April 30 and August 10, 2026? |
2026-06-02 |
2026-08-11 |
| 404 |
closed |
numeric |
By how many percentage points will the first-place candidate lead the second-place candidate in the first round of São Tomé e Príncipe's July 19, 2026 presidential election? |
2026-06-02 |
2026-07-21 |
| 405 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the final official voter turnout percentage in Algeria's July 2, 2026 parliamentary election? |
2026-06-02 |
2026-07-21 |
| 402 |
closed |
discrete |
How many math papers on arXiv will report using GPT or ChatGPT to contribute to a mathematical result in July 2026? |
2026-06-02 |
2026-08-01 |
| 401 |
closed |
discrete |
How many formal "Referral Decisions" will the Australian Government publish on the EPBC Act Public Portal between June 2, 2026, and August 10, 2026? |
2026-06-02 |
2026-07-12 |
| 400 |
closed |
discrete |
How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026? |
2026-06-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 398 |
closed |
discrete |
Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026 |
2026-06-01 |
2026-08-01 |
| 399 |
closed |
date |
On what date will any vaccine candidate intended to protect against Bundibugyo virus disease first be publicly reported to have dosed at least one human participant in a clinical trial? |
2026-06-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 396 |
closed |
numeric |
What will Port Hedland iron ore exports be in June 2026? |
2026-06-01 |
2026-07-19 |
| 397 |
closed |
date |
When will Blue Origin publicly release the root cause of the NG-4 hotfire anomaly? |
2026-06-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 394 |
resolved |
date |
On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson's One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%? |
2026-06-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 395 |
closed |
numeric |
What will U.S. customs-duty receipts (billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in Q2 2026? |
2026-06-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 393 |
closed |
discrete |
How many school shooting incidents with at least one victim killed will be recorded in the U.S. West between May 25 and August 1, 2026? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-08-11 |
| 392 |
closed |
discrete |
How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Sahel and Centre-Nord regions of Burkina Faso between June 1 and July 25, 2026? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-07-26 |
| 391 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the total minutes of en-route ATFM delay attributed to "ATC Staffing" at the Athens ACC in July 2026? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-08-12 |
| 210 |
closed |
date |
When will the US and Cuba have a diplomatic meeting? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-08-12 |
| 390 |
closed |
date |
When will Anthropic release Mythos? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-08-12 |
| 388 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Who will win the Fields Medal this year? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-08-12 |
| 389 |
closed |
date |
When will AI solve the next Frontier Math problem? |
2026-05-31 |
2026-08-12 |
| 387 |
closed |
numeric |
How many Statements of Reasons (SoRs) for Fully Automated content restrictions will TikTok submit to the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) Transparency Database in July 2026? |
2026-05-30 |
2026-08-03 |
| 384 |
closed |
discrete |
How many distinct studies newly posted on ClinicalTrials.gov (First Posted dates 2026-05-30 to 2026-08-11) will mention a specific commercial LLM product version or AI lab company by name? |
2026-05-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 385 |
resolved |
date |
On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container? |
2026-05-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 386 |
closed |
date |
On what day will the #1 song on Spotify’s Global Weekly Top Songs chart next exceed 45 million streams? |
2026-05-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 383 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many crossbench Senators will formally vote in favor of an amendment to implement a new gas export tax or levy during the final legislative week of the 2026 Winter Sittings (June 29 – July 2)? |
2026-05-30 |
2026-07-06 |
| 379 |
closed |
numeric |
How many measles cases with a 2026 onset date will the Utah Department of Health and Human Services report for the ongoing Utah measles outbreak in its dashboard update published closest to July 15, 2026? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-07-13 |
| 381 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the total number of "Working" Starlink satellites in orbit on August 1, 2026? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-05 |
| 378 |
closed |
discrete |
How many people will be shot, injured or killed, in the United States between 1 July and 10 July 2026, according to Gun Violence Archive? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 377 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the UK 30-year gilt yield first close at or below 5.40%? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 376 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the largest publicly reported attendance estimate for a single protest in Czechia (29 May – 10 August 2026)? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-11 |
| 375 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will employees of Czech Television or Czech Radio first begin a strike lasting at least one hour in response to the Czech government’s proposed reform of public-media funding? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 373 |
closed |
numeric |
How much revenue will Iran collect from Strait of Hormuz transit fees between June 1 and August 9, 2026? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 374 |
closed |
discrete |
How many persons will the U.S. Treasury sanction for paying or facilitating Strait of Hormuz transit fees between June 1 and August 9, 2026? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 371 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will South Korea's consumer price index first be reported at 3.15% year-over-year or higher? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 372 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Baker Hughes U.S. total rig count first be reported at 545 or fewer? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 370 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the largest potentially_affected value for any NHTSA recall campaign received from June 1 through August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-29 |
2026-08-11 |
| 369 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Czech government first approve a formal resolution authorising the sale, partial sale, privatisation process, or strategic-investor entry into Explosia a.s.? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 364 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the amount of the first DMA non-compliance fine (in millions of EUR) imposed by the EU on Google Search? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-07-16 |
| 367 |
resolved |
date |
When will Valve’s 2026 Steam Machine become available for purchase? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 368 |
resolved |
date |
When will an open-weight AI model achieve 70%+ on CyberGym Level 1? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 365 |
closed |
date |
When will the Board of Directors of the Václav Havel Library be restored to its full five-member composition? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 362 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the total cumulative duration (expressed in hours and minutes) that the Australian Senate remains in session past 10:00 PM AEST during the legislative week of June 29 to July 2, 2026? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-07-03 |
| 361 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the price of an ounce of gold be on August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 360 |
resolved |
date |
When will Polymarket or Kalshi's operations be restricted by the US government? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 359 |
closed |
date |
When will there be another assassination attempt against Donald Trump? |
2026-05-28 |
2026-08-12 |
| 358 |
resolved |
date |
On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 357 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will the USDA 18-States Corn Emerged percent be for the week ending May 31, 2026? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-06-15 |
| 356 |
closed |
date |
On what day will AAII bearish sentiment next exceed 50%? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 355 |
closed |
discrete |
How many crossbench amendments will pass the Australian Senate during the final week of the 2026 Winter Sittings (June 29 – July 2)? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-07-04 |
| 354 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
What legal rationale will control the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Cook? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 353 |
closed |
date |
When will Elections Alberta first publish the result of the Alberta independence citizen-initiative petition? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 352 |
closed |
discrete |
How many drug enforcement records will the FDA publish with a report_date between 5/26/2026 and 8/12/2026? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 351 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many civilians killed by targeted violence will ACLED's Ukraine Conflict Monitor report for the week of May 23 to May 29, 2026? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-07-01 |
| 350 |
closed |
date |
On what observation date will Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate first exceed 6.75%? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 349 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Directives will the Federal Register publish between 5/26/2026 and 8/12/2026? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 346 |
closed |
date |
When will it be officially declared Trump is suffering from a form of dementia? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 347 |
closed |
date |
When will it be declared the United States is experiencing recession? |
2026-05-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 313 |
closed |
numeric |
How many entries will GOV.UK list in the Companies House Authorised Corporate Service Providers public list on August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-26 |
2026-08-11 |
| 344 |
annulled |
discrete |
What will be the highest reported count of confirmed deaths from ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at question close. |
2026-05-26 |
2026-08-11 |
| 343 |
closed |
date |
When will the US, Israel, or an EU country experience a bombing incident resulting in 5 or more deaths? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 342 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the seasonally adjusted Initial Claims figure first reported by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week ending July 4, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-07-10 |
| 339 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Russia and Ukraine next hold talks at the ministerial level or higher? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 340 |
closed |
discrete |
How many people serving in Cabinet-level positions on June 1, 2026 will no longer hold those positions by August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 341 |
closed |
discrete |
How many U.S. states will report confirmed HPAI cases in commercial poultry between June 1 and July 31, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-08 |
| 336 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Who will finish second in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-06-10 |
| 337 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the highest daily settlement price of Brent Crude Oil between June 1 and July 31, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-04 |
| 338 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Houthi/Ansar Allah attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden will be publicly reported between June 1 and July 31, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-08 |
| 335 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the CDC first report at least 2,500 confirmed U.S. measles cases for 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 334 |
closed |
numeric |
How many total employees will LayoffAlert.org show as affected by WARN Act notices in 2026 on August 1, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-01 |
| 333 |
annulled |
discrete |
How many cases will the CDC report in the 2026 backyard poultry Salmonella investigation? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-07-22 |
| 327 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Cerebras Systems first report quarterly revenue of $250 million or more in a public earnings release? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 332 |
resolved |
date |
On what observation date will U.S. seasonally-adjusted Initial Claims first exceed 225,000? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 331 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
What will be the single largest cause of deaths inflicted by the Tatmadaw (Sit Tat) from 1 June 2026 to 31 July 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 329 |
closed |
discrete |
How many vulnerabilities will CISA add to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 5/26/2026 and 8/12/2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 330 |
closed |
numeric |
What will Donald Trump's YouGov approval rating be on August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 328 |
closed |
discrete |
How many candidate lists will the Central Election Commission of BiH certify for the 2026 general election by August 5? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-06 |
| 318 |
annulled |
numeric |
How many additional internally displaced persons will UNHCR's Operational Data Portal record for Sudan between May 1 and August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 325 |
closed |
date |
When will a jihadi terrorist attack in Nigeria's Federal Capital Territory result in the death of 5 or more people? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 324 |
closed |
date |
When will a second Somali state withdraw recognition of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as the country's president? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 310 |
closed |
date |
On what date will SpaceX complete and publicly confirm the first orbital propellant transfer between two Starship vehicles? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 323 |
closed |
date |
When will SpaceX launch its next Starship suborbital or orbital test flight (Flight 13)? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 321 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the total number of civilian fatalities due to terrorism in Pakistan in July 2026? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-10 |
| 320 |
closed |
discrete |
How many research papers in total mentioning AI P(doom) will be available via search on August 12th? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 319 |
closed |
date |
When will the first federal lawsuit challenging USCIS Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199 be filed? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 317 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many mass shootings will the Mass Shooting Tracker record in the United States between May 25 and June 8, 2026? |
2026-05-24 |
2026-06-15 |
| 314 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the cumulative number of events of Atrocities, Repression, and Terrorist activity for Mali in June and July 2026? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 316 |
closed |
date |
On what date will a significant religious crisis in the US be covered by news organizations. |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 315 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the cumulative number of foreign military engagements reported for Afghanistan and Pakistan in June and July 2026? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 308 |
closed |
date |
When will Iran or the United States first officially announce that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened to unrestricted commercial shipping? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 312 |
closed |
discrete |
How many Federal Power Act Section 202(c) emergency orders will the DOE issue from May 23 through August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 306 |
closed |
date |
On what date will a qualifying ceasefire-related agreement between the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and AFC/M23 next be publicly announced? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 307 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the placebo-adjusted reduction in monthly focal seizure frequency in Praxis Precision Medicines’ POWER1 trial of vormatrigine? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 309 |
closed |
date |
When will WHO or the DRC Ministry of Health officially declare the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in Ituri Province over? |
2026-05-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 303 |
closed |
discrete |
How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 304 |
closed |
date |
When will small protests occur in response to a US reconciliation package. |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 305 |
closed |
numeric |
What 2050 hydrogen-to-power capacity will NESO assume in material newly released between 22 May and 11 Aug 2026? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 302 |
resolved |
numeric |
What current assets will EPOCH AI LTD report in its first Companies House accounts? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 301 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will President Trump sign an executive order establishing a federal review process for advanced AI models? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 300 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the largest number of Labour MPs recorded in the smaller Labour voting bloc in any House of Commons division from May 26 through August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 298 |
closed |
discrete |
How many 2026 Biological License Application approval entries will FDA CBER list on August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 299 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many “new security patches” will Oracle state are included, in total, in its May 28, 2026 and June 16, 2026 Critical Security Patch Update advisories? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-06-20 |
| 296 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the range (in basis points) between the highest and lowest daily closing values of Argentina's EMBI+ spread from May 21 through August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 295 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the diameter (in meters) of the crater created by the SpaceX rocket stage impact on the Moon? |
2026-05-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 294 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the number of distinct infectious pathogens named in CDC HAN messages? |
2026-05-21 |
2026-08-12 |
| 198 |
closed |
discrete |
What will the value of a weight adjusted FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) be for July 2026? |
2026-05-21 |
2026-08-07 |
| 293 |
closed |
discrete |
How many health-administrative units in the DRC and Uganda combined will report confirmed Bundibugyo virus cases by August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-21 |
2026-08-12 |
| 292 |
closed |
numeric |
How many cumulative acres will NIFC report burned by wildfire in the US as of August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-21 |
2026-08-12 |
| 290 |
annulled |
discrete |
How many Executive Orders will be officially published in the Federal Register during the active lifespan of this question? |
2026-05-21 |
2026-08-11 |
| 291 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the minimum PV Spot Price be for Polysilicon Outside China (USD) on August 1 according to EnergyTrend? |
2026-05-21 |
2026-08-01 |
| 288 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will the OECD AI Incidents Monitor first show at least 500 events classified as "AI incident" with incident dates of May 20, 2026 or later? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 289 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the Nasdaq Private Market valuation spread between OpenAI and Anthropic on August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-11 |
| 287 |
closed |
date |
When will a Boeing Starliner mission successfully complete a nominal and fully automated docking with the ISS? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 286 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the maximum cumulative number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) within any rolling 7-day window included between June 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-10 |
| 285 |
closed |
numeric |
What will Japan's total daily oil reserve (in days of consumption) be for August 7, 2026, per the preliminary daily estimate sheet by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (METI)? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-11 |
| 283 |
closed |
date |
When will USTR first announce a final determination or final action concerning China in its 2026 Section 301 "structural excess capacity" investigation? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 284 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the WHO declare its PHEIC for the Bundibugyo virus outbreak to be over? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 281 |
closed |
date |
When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 282 |
closed |
discrete |
How many preventive or successive constitutional review cases will Polish President Karol Nawrocki file at the Constitutional Tribunal between 1 June and 12 August 2026? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 278 |
resolved |
date |
When will Louisiana give final legal approval to a new U.S. House district plan? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 279 |
closed |
date |
When will a federal court first rule on an alleged violation of an ICE immigration-court-arrest order? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 280 |
closed |
date |
When will Israel first legally approve early Knesset elections? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 276 |
resolved |
date |
When will Supreme Court issue a constitutional merits decision on Trump’s birthright-citizenship order? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 277 |
resolved |
date |
When will Hungary next promulgate a constitutional amendment? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 274 |
closed |
date |
When will the US government announce or formally notify an arms sale to Taiwan worth at least $14 billion? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 275 |
closed |
date |
When will China first attempt a blockade of Taiwan? |
2026-05-20 |
2026-08-12 |
| 272 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the U.S. EPA publish in the Federal Register its final rule completing the Clean Air Act Section 111 fossil-fuel power-plant rulemaking it proposed in June 2025? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 273 |
closed |
discrete |
On how many trading days will the S&P 500 close at an all-time high between May 20 and August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-11 |
| 270 |
resolved |
date |
When will a major AI lab next release a generally available model at version 3.5, 4.4, 4.5, 4.8, 5.0, or 5.6? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 271 |
closed |
date |
On what UTC date will the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) participate in the 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Foreign Ministers' Meeting? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 269 |
closed |
numeric |
What will Deutsche Bank AG report as its diluted earnings per share, in euros, for the second quarter of 2026? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 268 |
resolved |
date |
On what UTC date will FERC first issue an order granting, in whole or in material part, Constellation's Crane capacity-interconnection-rights transfer waiver request in Docket No. ER26-2028-000? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 267 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will the United States next conduct offensive military strikes against targets inside Iranian territory? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 256 |
resolved |
numeric |
Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026 |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-11 |
| 266 |
closed |
discrete |
How many political prisoners will Foro Penal report are detained in Venezuela, according to the most recent count published on or before August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 265 |
closed |
discrete |
How many FDA-authorized AI radiology diagnostic devices will report at least one patient-level performance metric from May 18 to August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-19 |
2026-08-12 |
| 264 |
closed |
date |
When will Samsung's first consumer Galaxy Glasses become available for consumers to purchase? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 262 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 257 |
resolved |
date |
When will Apple first make its redesigned LLM-based conversational Siri available for developers to test in a seeded iOS 27 developer beta? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 261 |
closed |
date |
What will be the date of the largest public presidential clemency batch of at least 5 people before August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 259 |
resolved |
numeric |
How many models on Hugging Face Hub will have more than 500 downloads in the 30 days ending June 30, 2026? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-07-03 |
| 260 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
What will be the first Hungary EU-funds restoration step before August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 258 |
closed |
discrete |
How many incidents will the China Coast Guard Incident Tracker report from May 18, 2026 to August 11, 2026? |
2026-05-18 |
2026-08-12 |
| 255 |
closed |
date |
Which day between May 17 and August 12, 2026 will show the largest weighted anomaly in Ukraine MoD's reported Russian personnel and tank losses? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 250 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the ratio of e-CNY retail transaction value to the combined retail transaction value of all other operational retail CBDCs in Q2 2026? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-08-11 |
| 254 |
resolved |
discrete |
By how much will producer prices for final demand services rise in May 2026? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-06-15 |
| 253 |
closed |
discrete |
How many counts in James Comey's April 2026 indictment will remain active on August 10, 2026? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-08-11 |
| 252 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will North Korea next conduct a ballistic missile test? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 251 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many total suspected cases of Ebola will be reported in the 2026 Ituri Province outbreak by June 1, 2026? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-06-02 |
| 247 |
closed |
discrete |
Net change in entities on the U.S. BIS Entity List via Federal Register rules published between June 1 and August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 246 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will the TEDPIX (Tehran Stock Exchange main index) close at on 5/19/2026? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-05-23 |
| 245 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Péter Magyar first set foot on Ukrainian government-controlled territory as Prime Minister of Hungary? |
2026-05-17 |
2026-08-12 |
| 244 |
closed |
date |
When will the 2026 NATO Ankara Summit publicly affirms Ukraine's irreversible path to NATO membership? |
2026-05-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 243 |
resolved |
date |
When will the EU formally open Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations? |
2026-05-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 242 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the European Council formally approve using frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine? |
2026-05-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 241 |
resolved |
date |
When will the 2026 G7 Evian Summit conclude with a Leaders' Communique signed by all seven heads of state and government? |
2026-05-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 240 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict? |
2026-05-16 |
2026-08-12 |
| 150 |
annulled |
numeric |
How many billions of shrimp will the Shrimp Welfare Project claim to have helped annually? |
2026-05-15 |
2026-08-08 |
| 152 |
annulled |
discrete |
How Many Public Health Emergency of International Concern will the World Health Organization Declare by the Resolution Date? |
2026-05-15 |
2026-08-11 |
| 238 |
closed |
date |
When will a federal appeals court first uphold any part of a block on Trump’s law-firm executive orders? |
2026-05-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 237 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the next top 15 US national university publicly enter a federal resolution agreement with the Trump administration? |
2026-05-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 236 |
closed |
date |
When will OPEC+ first announce a formal restructuring of its production-cooperation framework after the UAE's exit? |
2026-05-15 |
2026-08-12 |
| 235 |
resolved |
date |
When will Zelensky participate in a formal NATO Ankara Summit session (5/15/2026 to 8/12/2026)? |
2026-05-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 234 |
resolved |
date |
When will a sitting Labour MP formally resign their seat to enable Andy Burnham to contest it? |
2026-05-14 |
2026-08-12 |
| 233 |
closed |
discrete |
Highest weekly increase in U.S. confirmed measles cases (5/21/2026 to 8/6/2026) |
2026-05-14 |
2026-08-08 |
| 232 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the next regulatory marketing approval of Lilly’s Foundayo/orforglipron, excluding the already announced US and UAE approvals, be publicly announced? |
2026-05-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 231 |
annulled |
discrete |
Net change in the number of "Adopted" AI policy entries in the OECD AI Policy Observatory (Q2 2026) |
2026-05-13 |
2026-07-10 |
| 230 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many model entries will the Epoch AI Notable AI Models dataset contain with a release date on or before July 1, 2026? |
2026-05-13 |
2026-07-07 |
| 229 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the largest adjusted closing-price gain before Aug 12, 2026 among May 12 NBI constituents with market cap ≥$3B? |
2026-05-13 |
2026-08-12 |
| 228 |
resolved |
date |
What will be the first date on which front-month NYMEX WTI crude oil futures settle below USD81.00 per barrel? |
2026-05-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 226 |
closed |
discrete |
What will Ornn’s H100 SXM compute price index be at 4:00pm New York time on 31 July 2026? |
2026-05-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 227 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Anthropic first publicly report that its annualized run-rate revenue has reached at least $50 billion? |
2026-05-12 |
2026-08-12 |
| 146 |
resolved |
discrete |
What total volume of oil reserves will Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, or another official Japanese government body, announce for release in June 2026 |
2026-05-12 |
2026-07-31 |
| 225 |
closed |
numeric |
How many total hours of outages will Claude’s uptime page show during July 2026? |
2026-05-12 |
2026-08-03 |
| 224 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the UK and EU first publicly announce that they have reached a new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 223 |
closed |
discrete |
What will the Milei − Sheinbaum "Malo/muy malo" gap (pp) be in the latest AtlasIntel Latam Pulse pair published before 2026-08-12 12:00 UTC? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 212 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the largest absolute change among select countries' currencies of "% under/over valued" between the January and July 2026 editions of The Economist's Big Mac Index? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 220 |
resolved |
numeric |
What number of valid votes will the first-place candidate receive in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-06-02 |
| 221 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which EU Member State will have the largest increase in its Innovation Index score between 2025 and 2026, as reported in the European Innovation Scoreboard 2026? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-10 |
| 222 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the highest daily closing value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) between June 1, 2026 and August 7, 2026? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-08 |
| 217 |
closed |
discrete |
How many individuals and entities will the EU newly list under Russia/Belarus/Ukraine-related sanctions between 10 June and 10 August 2026? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-11 |
| 218 |
closed |
discrete |
How many people will be added to Viasna’s Belarusian political prisoners list between 1 June 2026 and 10 August 2026? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-11 |
| 219 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many of South Korea’s 17 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial posts will be won by Democratic Party candidates in the 2026 local elections? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-06-05 |
| 214 |
resolved |
date |
When will Czech President Petr Pavel file a competence-dispute petition with the Constitutional Court? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-07-09 |
| 215 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many seats will the second most successful party or coalition win in Ethiopia’s 2026 legislative election? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-07-12 |
| 216 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Ukraine and Russia complete the prisoner exchange in which each side returns at least 1,000 people? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-12 |
| 213 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the highest official daily closing price, in EUR, of Czechoslovak Group shares at Euronext Amsterdam between 1 July 2026 and 7 August 2026, inclusive? |
2026-05-11 |
2026-08-08 |
| 211 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the score difference between the highest-ranked proprietary model and the highest-ranked open model on the LLM Chatbot Arena on August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-08-11 |
| 208 |
closed |
date |
When will CME Crude Oil (CL) futures reach a new all-time high price (greater than $147.27)? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-08-12 |
| 209 |
closed |
date |
When will Israel next close its airspace? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-08-12 |
| 206 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the ratio between the (signed) 98th and 2nd percentile annualized funding rate of the SpaceX Perpetual Future on Ventuals in June 2026? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-07-02 |
| 207 |
closed |
date |
When will the first military encounter between U.S. and Cuban forces occur? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-07-30 |
| 203 |
closed |
discrete |
How many confirmed cases of Hantavirus will be reported in the US by June 1, 2026? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-05-31 |
| 204 |
closed |
date |
When will Russia capture the entirety of Rodynske, Ukraine? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-07-30 |
| 201 |
closed |
numeric |
Average Daily Volume for xyz:NIFTY on Hyperliquid in June and July? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-08-02 |
| 202 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the ratio of thermal to renewable energy generated, during the highest demand hour on the California (CAISO) grid in July 2026? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-08-03 |
| 200 |
closed |
numeric |
Average Daily Hyperliquid HIP-4 Volume in June? |
2026-05-10 |
2026-07-01 |
| 199 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the difference in Z-scores between Consumer Sentiment and CPI-U YoY-change be for June 2026? |
2026-05-09 |
2026-08-03 |
| 197 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the number of deaths that a concensus of credible reporting declares for both Iran and US's attacks on ships on August 11th. |
2026-05-08 |
2026-08-11 |
| 196 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many total cases epidemiologically linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus cluster will WHO or relevant national authorities publicly report by August 1, 2026? |
2026-05-08 |
2026-08-04 |
| 195 |
closed |
discrete |
How many additional prisoners will Belarus release by August 1, 2026, in deals publicly tied to the current U.S.-Belarus channel? |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-03 |
| 193 |
resolved |
date |
When will Keir Starmer stop being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 194 |
resolved |
date |
When will Denmark have its next government? |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 192 |
closed |
date |
On what date will 7 officials in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be killed or incapacitated. |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 190 |
resolved |
date |
When will Iran be out of the top 3, 24h volume markets traded on Polymarket Politics |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 191 |
closed |
date |
When will the number of Total Forcibly Displaced Sudanese fall below 11.4m |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 189 |
closed |
numeric |
What will Trump’s net approval rating on the cost of living be on August 1, 2026, according to Silver Bulletin? |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-03 |
| 188 |
closed |
numeric |
Ratio of leading competitor to Kamala Harris presidential nominee odds on August 11th. |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-11 |
| 187 |
closed |
date |
On what date will 10 or more government officials be incapacitated or killed as a direct result of the Iran conflict |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 186 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the highest publicly-disclosed MMLU score of any Apple-developed AI model by 2026-08-12? |
2026-05-07 |
2026-08-12 |
| 184 |
closed |
date |
What is the grant date of the first Automated Passenger Service (APS) permit publicly announced by an official UK source? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 185 |
closed |
discrete |
How many unique services will be on Ofcom's register of Category 1, Category 2A, or Category 2B services at 23:59 UTC on July 31, 2026? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-01 |
| 178 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which organization will have created the leading model on the METR 80% time horizon leaderboard on August 10, 2026? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-10 |
| 183 |
closed |
date |
On what date will NIST next publish a public CAISI model-evaluation writeup after May 6, 2026? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 179 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-08 |
| 181 |
closed |
discrete |
How many full signatories will the European Commission list for the General-Purpose AI Code of Practice on August 2, 2026? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-03 |
| 182 |
closed |
discrete |
What will the trough-to-peak interval for Bitcoin be within the May–August 12th window? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-08-12 |
| 177 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the top model's score on ProgramBench be on August 1, 2026? |
2026-05-06 |
2026-07-31 |
| 176 |
resolved |
numeric |
Ratio of TradeXYZ Pre-IPO Trading Volume to Ventuals Pre-IPO Trading Volume in May and June |
2026-05-05 |
2026-07-01 |
| 173 |
resolved |
date |
When will the Pentagon publicly release previously undisclosed UAP/UFO files in response to Trump's February 2026 directive? |
2026-05-05 |
2026-08-12 |
| 166 |
closed |
date |
When will it be officially announced that Donald Trump will meet with Kim Jong Un? |
2026-05-04 |
2026-08-12 |
| 168 |
closed |
date |
When will Aung San Suu Kyi's family or international observers announce they have verified she is alive? |
2026-05-04 |
2026-08-12 |
| 170 |
closed |
date |
When will JetBlue Airways announce a bankruptcy filing or a permanent cessation of operations? |
2026-05-04 |
2026-08-12 |
| 172 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will the US Gulf urea spot price be for May 2026, according to the IMF? |
2026-05-04 |
2026-06-10 |
| 171 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be Australia's natural gas export value for May 2026? |
2026-05-03 |
2026-07-02 |
| 169 |
closed |
discrete |
How many cumulative alleged ceasefire violations will CTSAMVM report in South Sudan for the period of April to July 2026? |
2026-05-03 |
2026-08-12 |
| 165 |
closed |
date |
When will the US and Iran jointly publish a formal agreement or permanent ceasefire document? |
2026-05-03 |
2026-08-11 |
| 164 |
resolved |
numeric |
By how many percentage points will Civil Contract outperform or underperform their pre-election poll average in the 2026 Armenian parliamentary election? |
2026-05-02 |
2026-08-11 |
| 162 |
closed |
date |
When will the UN Security Council adopt a binding ceasefire resolution on Sudan? |
2026-05-02 |
2026-08-11 |
| 163 |
closed |
discrete |
Total hours of major ChatGPT service disruptions between May 1 and August 12, 2026? |
2026-05-02 |
2026-08-11 |
| 161 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the total combined weekly transit calls through the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week ending August 2, 2026? |
2026-05-02 |
2026-08-10 |
| 157 |
closed |
date |
When will the Treasury or White House first publicly announce a federal Bitcoin acquisition using new funds (not seized assets) for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 158 |
annulled |
date |
When will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind first release a flagship model with a major version increment from their April 2026 flagship (e.g., GPT-6, Claude Opus 5, Gemini 3)? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 159 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the cumulative NET inflow (in USD billions) to all US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs combined between April 22 and August 12, 2026, per Farside Investors data? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 160 |
closed |
date |
When will the Rwandan government indicate plans to reduce the Rwanda Security Force (RSF) deployment to Mozambique to below 2,000 troops? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 155 |
closed |
date |
When will the BIS publish a final framework, standards, or technical specifications for cross-border CBDC interoperability? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 156 |
closed |
date |
Which day will have the largest amount of Taiwan ADIZ violations before August 13, 2026? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 153 |
closed |
date |
When will the Haitian general election be postponed? |
2026-05-01 |
2026-08-12 |
| 154 |
closed |
numeric |
How much money will the U.S. Scam Center Strike Force indicate is has restrained on 11 August 2026? |
2026-04-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 148 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy next meet in person? |
2026-04-30 |
2026-08-12 |
| 147 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many senior Malian officials will die from conflict-related causes between May 1 and May 30, 2026? |
2026-04-30 |
2026-06-02 |
| 145 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the ratio of Anthropic Claude Code's weekly npm downloads to OpenAI Codex's weekly npm downloads for the week of 2026-08-03 through 2026-08-09? |
2026-04-29 |
2026-08-12 |
| 144 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the share price of Agronomics on the London Stock Exchange at close of trading on 6th of August 2026 |
2026-04-28 |
2026-08-06 |
| 142 |
closed |
discrete |
How many vessels will the Suez Canal Authority report transited the canal from August 1 through August 7, 2026, inclusive? |
2026-04-28 |
2026-08-10 |
| 141 |
closed |
discrete |
How many workers will BLS report were involved in major work stoppages beginning in July 2026? |
2026-04-27 |
2026-08-10 |
| 140 |
resolved |
date |
When will the merged SpaceX-xAI entity complete an Initial Public Offering (IPO)? |
2026-04-27 |
2026-08-12 |
| 139 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the third-highest valuation reported for any private-company transaction by July 12, 2026? |
2026-04-27 |
2026-07-13 |
| 138 |
closed |
discrete |
How many zip files will be listed in NARA's UAP bulk download collection on August 1, 2026? |
2026-04-27 |
2026-08-02 |
| 137 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the average SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Index be for June 2026, in USD per dry metric ton? |
2026-04-27 |
2026-07-22 |
| 134 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will the 7-day average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz exceed 13, according to the IMF? |
2026-04-26 |
2026-08-12 |
| 132 |
closed |
date |
"When will OFAC first add any of China's Big Four banks (ICBC, BOC, CCB, or ABC) or a wholly-owned subsidiary to the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) sanctions list?" |
2026-04-26 |
2026-08-12 |
| 131 |
closed |
discrete |
How many major oil infrastructure fires or explosions will be reported globally from May 1 to August 1, 2026? |
2026-04-26 |
2026-08-01 |
| 129 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-07-03 |
| 130 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the latest GDPNow estimate for Q2 2026 as of June 15, 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-06-16 |
| 79 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the average EPP seat share across EU national parliaments on August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-08-11 |
| 128 |
closed |
date |
When will AGSI first show EU aggregate gas storage fill level at or above 70.0% in 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 127 |
closed |
discrete |
How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-08-01 |
| 125 |
closed |
discrete |
How many U.S. jurisdictions will CDC classify as Moderate, High, or Very High for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral activity in the August 7, 2026 update? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-07 |
| 126 |
annulled |
multiple_choice |
Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-06-01 |
| 124 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-05-08 |
| 123 |
closed |
date |
When will the United States gain physical access to Iran's "nuclear dust" stockpile? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-13 |
| 122 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the estimated monthly revenue (in millions USD) of Supercell's highest-grossing game in June 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-07-15 |
| 121 |
closed |
numeric |
Price of Bitcoin on August 11? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-11 |
| 120 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which company has the best AI model at the end of April 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-04-30 |
| 119 |
resolved |
date |
When will the Supreme Court issue its decision in Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312)? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 118 |
closed |
date |
When will U.S. initial unemployment claims reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 116 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the average annualized funding rate for Anthropic on Ventuals in June 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-07-30 |
| 117 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the YTD vs. 2025 change for Petroleum and Petroleum Products carloads in the AAR weekly report for the week ending June 27, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-07-02 |
| 113 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will be the lower bound of the FOMC’s fed funds target range following its June 16–17, 2026 meeting? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-06-17 |
| 114 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-05-30 |
| 115 |
resolved |
date |
When will the next in-person summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping begin? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-05-18 |
| 102 |
closed |
discrete |
How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 112 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 109 |
resolved |
date |
When will the first IEEPA tariff refund payment be received by an importer? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 106 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
How escalatory will U.S. ground operations in Iran be before Aug 12? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 107 |
resolved |
date |
When will PortWatch first record at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 104 |
annulled |
date |
When will SpaceX announce the exercise of its option to acquire Cursor? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 105 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Drewry’s World Container Index first fall below $2,000 per 40-foot container after 2026-04-23? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 100 |
closed |
date |
On what date will OpenAI first publicly report that Codex has more than 8 million weekly developers? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 101 |
closed |
discrete |
How many PLA aircraft sorties will Taiwan’s MND report as crossing the Taiwan Strait median line on the busiest 24-hour reporting period from April 25 to August 10, 2026? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 103 |
resolved |
numeric |
How many times will "Wong Kim Ark" be referenced in the Supreme Court opinion document in Trump v. Barbara? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 98 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the net positions of Non-Commercials in S&P 500 E-Mini Futures |
2026-04-23 |
2026-07-31 |
| 99 |
resolved |
date |
On what date will the NVD Dashboard first show fewer than 2,000 CVEs in “Awaiting Enrichment”? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 95 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which of these sector ETFs will rise the most |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 96 |
annulled |
discrete |
How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map. |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-08 |
| 97 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the Net positions of Small Traders in S&P 500 E-Mini Futures |
2026-04-23 |
2026-07-31 |
| 94 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
What will be the result of Achieve Life Science's cytisinicline PDUFA |
2026-04-23 |
2026-06-20 |
| 86 |
closed |
discrete |
What hazard ratio will be reported for the CARDIO-TTRansform secondary endpoint in patients treated with tafamidis at baseline? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 91 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-05-30 |
| 87 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will the London Metal Exchange (LME) official 3-month copper price be on July 1, 2026, in USD per metric tonne? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-02 |
| 88 |
closed |
date |
By what date will the first publicly released model score above 70% on SWE-Bench Pro (Public Dataset)? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 89 |
closed |
date |
When will the FAA publish the Part 108 (BVLOS) drone operations final rule in the Federal Register? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-01 |
| 81 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) next publicly agree to a pause or end to their conflict? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 82 |
closed |
discrete |
What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-03 |
| 85 |
resolved |
numeric |
How many million net barrels of crude oil will be drawn from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during May 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-06-01 |
| 29 |
annulled |
date |
When will Cuba experience a regime change? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 31 |
annulled |
multiple_choice |
Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 32 |
closed |
discrete |
How many United States ships will Iran successfully attack in the Strait of Hormuz before August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 24 |
annulled |
date |
When will the U.S. government announce they will receive monetary assistance from Elon Musk? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 28 |
annulled |
date |
When will it be officially announced that Donald Trump will meet with Kim Jong Un? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 80 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
Which pair of candidates will advance from the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-01 |
| 69 |
closed |
discrete |
How many LLM entries on the BALROG leaderboard will have a progress score of at least 60.0% on August 4, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-04 |
| 76 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will be the top verified score for a publicly-available LLM on Humanity's Last Exam on July 1 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-01 |
| 77 |
closed |
discrete |
What hazard ratio will Novartis first report for the primary endpoint in the Lp(a) HORIZON clinical trial? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 73 |
annulled |
discrete |
What will be the maximum number of US troops deployed on Iranian territory during May 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-31 |
| 74 |
resolved |
multiple_choice |
What will Biogen’s first public top-line statement about the Phase 2 CELIA trial be by August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 75 |
resolved |
discrete |
What will be the total number of transit calls PortWatch records through the Strait of Hormuz for the period April 27–May 3, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-05-03 |
| 70 |
resolved |
numeric |
What will NVIDIA's TTM revenue be at the end of Q1 FY2027? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-31 |
| 71 |
closed |
discrete |
What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-10 |
| 72 |
resolved |
discrete |
How many local councillor seats will the Green Party win in the May 2026 London local elections? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-05-15 |
| 67 |
closed |
discrete |
How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-04 |
| 68 |
closed |
date |
When will the next Supreme Court Justice announce their retirement? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |